bellwether

Noun

bellwether (plural bellwethers)

1. The leading sheep of a flock, having a bell hung round its neck.
   • Several old ladies forthwith proclaimed their intention of following him; but, as one or two of them were deaf, and another had been threatened with an attack of that mild, but obstinate complaint, dementia senilis, many thought it was not so much the force of his arguments as a kind of tendency to...1861, Oliver Wendell Holmes Sr., chapter XXXI, in Elsie Venner
2. (figuratively) Anything that indicates future trends.
   • Mortgage delinquencies often act as a bellwether for a forthcoming recession.
   • At Hampton Court the little flocks of visitors are not provided with an official bellwether, but are left to browse at discretion upon the local antiquities.1878, Henry James, An International Episode

   Synonyms:

   gauge, indicator, sign

3. (figuratively) A stock whose price performance is treated as an indicator of the likely direction of a broader market, sector, or industry.
   • One of my favorite sentiment indicators is bellwether stocks — key stocks that are leaders in their fields. When investors buy or sell these shares, it's usually a good sign of confidence or the lack of it in that sector of the market and sometimes even the economy.2009, Joe Duarte, Market Timing For Dummies, John Wiley & Sons, →ISBN, page 120

   Synonyms:

   bellwether stock